U.S. President Donald Trump is welcomed by Emperor Naruhito upon his arrival at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo on Monday evening (POOL / VIA REUTERS)
TOKYO — U.S. President Donald Trump landed yesterday in Japan to begin a three-day trip, according to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
After meeting with Emperor Naruhito yesterday, Trump will meet with new Prime Minister Takaichi this morning to discuss an array of affairs. Among them stand out Japanese defense spending, relations with China, and trade deals between the U.S. and Japan. These talks may be a test for Takaichi’s new government, with the potential to underscore its limitations.
The trip comes as a part of a larger set of talks with Asian leaders, which began last Sunday in Malaysia, where Trump and Takaichi attended meetings related to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. After his visit to Japan, Trump is scheduled to head to South Korea for a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. There he will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung, as well as hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Last Tuesday, new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Sanae Takaichi, was officially elected Prime Minister by the Japanese Parliament. A protégé of former PM Shinzo Abe, and admirer of former British PM Margaret Thatcher, Takaichi stands as a hardline conservative amongst Japan’s political landscape.
After leaving its coalition with pacifist party Komeito, the LDP entered a new coalition with Ishin, the right-wing Japan Innovation Party. Given its smaller size, and the LDP’s own decline in parliamentary seats, the governing coalition is left without a majority, thinning its legislative power.
A departure from the pacifist coalition allows Takaichi to pursue her “strong defense” rhetoric. According to Reuters, Ishin and Takaichi both want to “revise Japan’s pacifist constitution, strengthen the military to deter China and loosen restrictions on arms exports.”
The new Prime Minister announced to Parliament last Friday her plans to accelerate the doubling of defense spending to 2% of Japan’s GDP, bringing the goal two years forward. This comes as Trump presses allies to increase defense spending, claiming unequal burden in security provision.
During the talks, the two leaders are also expected to discuss Japan’s possible $550 billion investment in the U.S, NHK World reported.
An X post by Takaichi ahead of today’s meeting states that she is looking forward to “having a fruitful discussion on how we can further strengthen our great Alliance.”
On his flight from Malaysia, Trump told reporters “I look forward to meeting the new prime minister, I heard phenomenal things. She was a great ally and friend of Shinzo Abe, who was my friend.”
According to Reuters, Takaichi will attempt to leverage the Abe bond, by taking President Trump to one of Abe’s golf clubs. Takaichi may try to rekindle the friendship Trump and Abe formed over golf during the former’s first term.
Analysis – A test to Takaichi’s government
As mentioned above, Takaichi now leads a ruling coalition without a majority in parliament. This crucially means that she will need opposition support to pass key bills.
At the moment, a Kyodo News poll estimated her approval ratings to be around 64%. Being the first female Prime Minister in Japan has also given her world wide coverage and recognition. Furthermore, her protégé Shinzo Abe remains a figure of unusual success amongst former Prime Ministers.
Expectations seem high for Takaichi, and today’s talks as well, as what comes out of them, may set the stage for future support and public opinion. Despite its recent shifts to the right, Japanese society has long been marked by pacifism and as China strengthens, maintaining healthy bilateral relations can be crucial for maintaining peace in the region.
In spite of her traditional hawkish approach to Japan China relations, Takaichi stated in her first major policy speech that Japan needs to have stable and constructive relationship with China. Today’s talks will show us what her stance will truly be when it comes to multilateral foreign policy.
To implement policies that increase military strength and that go against traditional pacifism will require solid support from the opposition. Whether Takaichi can garner said support on seemingly controversial issues remains to be seen.
The possibility of failure due to a lack of majority in parliament underscores the potential limits of Takaichi’s government. A realization of that failure after these meetings, once she moves from talks to policy implementation, may set her up for an image of weak power.
Regardless of parliamentary results, a successful relationship with an unpredictable leader like Trump can be a chance for Takaichi, who has had no foreign policy experience, to prove herself in the short term.
Japan Foreign Journal | 日本国際ジャーナル 